The investment banking arm of JPMorgan Chase is predicting a significant rally for one commodity amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.
According to J.P.Morgan’s co-head of economic research, Joseph Lupton, the military operation against Iran by the US and Israel might not only send the prices of oil and gold higher, but may also push aluminum higher.
“Aluminum is another market to watch, given that the Middle East is a major producer and exporter of the base metal. In 2025, the region had a net exportable surplus of 5 million metric tons (mmt) of primary aluminum, which accounted for nearly 7% of global production.”
According to Lupton, if the supply of aluminum appears likely to be “materially dislocated or snarled,” its price could “quickly run toward $4,000” per metric ton, a gain of approximately 22% from the current level.
Aluminum is trading at $3,282 at time of writing.
Lupton says that the price of Brent crude oil will continue to move higher if tankers are unable to pass through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz.
“A sustained reduction of roughly one-fifth of this supply — in the range of 4 million barrels per day (mbd) — would be sufficient to push Brent crude well above $100 per barrel (bbl). It will take time before we consider material changes to this year’s energy price outlook, but tail-risk concerns will likely persist until the conflict subsides.”
Brent crude is trading at $85 at time of writing.
In the case of gold, Lupton predicts the yellow metal could rally by between 5% to 10% in the near term to reach the January high of around $5,400.
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